What the Trade War, $100 Oil, and Global Uncertainty Actually Mean for Chilliwack Real Estate

By Matt Paisley | The Welcome Matt | March 11th 2026

Est. reading time: 7 minutes

If you've opened a news app in the last week, you've been hit from multiple directions. Tariffs. A war in Iran. Oil surging past $100 a barrel for the first time since 2022. Stock markets selling off. The kind of headlines that make people freeze whether they're buying groceries, running a business, or trying to figure out whether now is the right time to buy or sell a home.

So let me do something the national headlines aren't doing: let's talk about what this actually means for you, in Chilliwack, right now. Because there's a significant difference between what's happening at the macro level (the Canada-US trade war, oil markets in turmoil, a conflict in the Middle East disrupting global energy supply) and what's happening on the ground in the Fraser Valley real estate market. One is a collection of political and geopolitical stories. The other is your life. And confusing the two is exactly what leads people to make decisions; or worse, avoid making decisions, based on fear rather than facts.

I'm going to walk you through both sides of this. What tariffs genuinely do affect in Chilliwack real estate, and what they don't. By the end of this, you'll have a clearer picture than 95% of people currently trying to navigate this market.

First, Let's Be Honest About What Tariffs Do Affect

Trade policy doesn't exist in a vacuum, and I'm not going to pretend it doesn't touch real estate at all because it does. Here's where the impact is real.

New construction is getting more expensive.

Steel, aluminum, and lumber are the backbone of residential construction. When tariffs drive up the cost of those materials (and they are) the economics of building new homes shift. Developers face tighter margins, some projects get delayed or shelved entirely, and the per-unit cost of new builds rises. For buyers who had been eyeing a brand-new home or a new development, that's a meaningful change in the numbers.

Here's the flip side of that though, and it's important: when new construction gets more expensive, demand shifts toward the existing resale market. The home that's already built, already on MLS, already sitting in Chilliwack's current inventory of 900+ listings: that home doesn't carry a tariff surcharge. It's priced on today's market, and it's available today. In a strange way, the tariff pressure on new builds actually strengthens the case for buying resale right now.

Economic uncertainty makes some buyers hesitate.

This one is straightforward, and it's already playing out. When people feel uncertain about their jobs, their industries, or the broader economy, they pull back on major financial decisions. We saw it in early 2025 when the first wave of tariff talk pushed buyers to the sidelines across BC and Ontario. We're likely to see some version of that again now.

But here's what's worth understanding: buyer hesitation doesn't make the market worse for buyers. It actually does the opposite. Every buyer who pauses because of a headline is one less person competing for the home you're looking at. In a market that already has 10-year high inventory levels, additional hesitation among buyers simply extends the window of leverage that already exists.

Oil prices and the Iran conflict are adding a second layer of uncertainty.

I'd be doing you a disservice if I didn't address this directly, because it's impossible to ignore right now. Oil surged past $100 a barrel earlier this week (its first time since 2022) before pulling back slightly as the IEA announced a record emergency reserve release. As of today it sits around $90 a barrel. The pullback doesn’t signal resolution; it signals just how reactive and volatile this situation remains after US and Israeli strikes on Iran disrupted the Strait of Hormuz. That chokepoint carries roughly 20% of the world's daily oil supply, and the disruption is already being felt at the pumps, in global stock markets, and in the broader economic outlook.

What does that mean for real estate specifically? Elevated energy prices feed inflation. And inflation complicates the Bank of Canada's ability to cut interest rates and creating what economists are beginning to call stagflation risk: a slowing economy paired with rising prices. That's a genuinely difficult environment for policymakers to navigate, and it does create uncertainty around where mortgage rates land over the next 6 to 12 months.

Here's what I won't do: pretend that uncertainty doesn't exist, or that anyone including me, the banks, and the economists can tell you with confidence how this resolves. The conflict is days old as of writing. The situation is fluid.

What I can tell you is this: the Chilliwack resale market doesn't run on oil. Your mortgage is tied to Canadian interest rate policy, not the price of a barrel of Brent crude. And while global volatility absolutely matters to consumer confidence, the local fundamentals that make this a buyer's market; high inventory, motivated sellers, softened prices, elevated days on market, exist entirely independent of what's happening in the Strait of Hormuz. The inventory is here now. The motivated sellers are here now. The negotiating leverage is here now. None of that changes because of a geopolitical event on the other side of the world.

Now, Here's What None of This Changes About Chilliwack Real Estate

This is the part most people miss because the headlines don't cover local fundamentals. They cover national and global anxiety.

A war in the Middle East doesn't change why people move to Chilliwack.

The Fraser Valley's value proposition has always been space, lifestyle, and relative affordability compared to Metro Vancouver. A detached home in Chilliwack is still a fraction of what the same square footage costs in Burnaby or Langley. Oil at $100 a barrel doesn't close that gap. If anything, the economic pressure of rising costs in Vancouver and the surrounding metros makes Chilliwack's value case stronger over the medium term, not weaker.

Global headlines don't change the local supply picture.

Chilliwack's inventory situation is a local story. We have over 900 active listings right now; the highest December number in more than a decade. That supply didn't accumulate because of tariffs or oil prices, and it won't evaporate because of them either. It's the product of years of market cycles, seller pricing expectations, and local dynamics that exist completely independent of what's happening at the US border.

That inventory is still sitting there. Those sellers are still motivated. The benchmark price for a Chilliwack single-family home is still down modestly year over year and the days on market are still elevated. Nothing in the current trade headlines changes any of those numbers.

And none of this changes the long-term trajectory of homeownership.

Every generation that has bought a home in this country has done so against a backdrop of something: a recession, a rate shock, a political crisis, an oil spike, a pandemic. The people who bought in Chilliwack during the 2008 financial crisis, the 2020 COVID shutdown, and the 2022 interest rate surge all have one thing in common: they made a decision based on their own situation rather than waiting for the national mood to improve.

The national mood, historically speaking, never fully clears. There's always a reason to wait and right now there are several. The question is whether your personal situation: your income, your job security, or your family's needs supports making a move. If it does, external noise is just that: noise.

What This Means Practically If You're Thinking About Buying

Let me get specific, because general market commentary only takes you so far.

If you're a buyer sitting on the fence right now, the tariff headlines have likely given you one more reason to wait. I understand that instinct. But I'd ask you to separate the emotion from the math for a moment.

The math says: inventory in Chilliwack is at its highest level in over a decade. Prices have softened modestly. Days on market are elevated. Sellers are negotiable in ways they haven't been for years. If you are financially stable and your employment is secure, those conditions represent a genuine opportunity that isn't waiting for the geopolitical situation to resolve.

The emotion says: everything feels uncertain right now, so maybe hold off. That's a completely human response. But uncertainty has a cost too, it's just a cost that's harder to see than a mortgage payment. Every month you wait is a month of rent paid, a month of potential equity not building, and potentially a month closer to the spring market when buyer competition increases and the leverage you have today compresses.

If your situation is solid, this market is working in your favour right now. Don't let a trade dispute in Ottawa and Washington make that decision for you.

What This Means If You're Thinking About Selling

The message here is sharper, and I'll be direct.

In a market with this much inventory, sellers who are priced accurately are still moving their homes. Sellers who are anchored to 2021 or 2022 valuations are watching their listings accumulate days on market while buyers scroll past. The tariff environment doesn't change that dynamic; if anything, it reinforces it. Buyers who are already cautious about the economy are going to be even less willing to stretch on price.

If you're thinking about selling in 2026, the most important thing you can do right now is get an honest market evaluation, not one that tells you what you want to hear, but one that tells you what the market will actually support in today's conditions. A well-priced listing in Chilliwack right now will find a buyer. An overpriced one will sit, and the longer it sits, the more negotiating power shifts further away from you.

The Bottom Line

Tariffs are real. The trade uncertainty is real. The economic noise is going to continue for months, and probably longer. But Chilliwack real estate has its own story right now; one that was already being written before the latest round of headlines, and one that doesn't disappear because of them. High inventory. Motivated sellers. Modest price corrections. A buyer's market by every statistical measure. Those fundamentals don't get rewritten by what happens at the border.

The smartest move you can make in an uncertain environment isn't to freeze. It's to get informed specifically, about your situation, your options, and what the local market actually looks like for the home type and neighbourhood you care about. That's what I'm here for. Not to sell you on anything, but to give you a straight read on what's actually happening so you can make a decision you feel good about, whatever that decision turns out to be.

If you'd like to talk through what this market means for your specific situation, I'm always happy to connect. No pressure, no pitch; just a real conversation.

Matt | The Welcome Matt Fraser Valley Real Estate | Chilliwack, Abbotsford, Langley, Mission, Hope & Agassiz 📱 604-991-5028 🌐 thewelcomematt.ca

Market data referenced in this post reflects Chilliwack and District Real Estate Board statistics for December 2025 and January 2026. Tariff and economic commentary reflects conditions as of early March 2026. This post is intended for general informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or legal advice. For guidance specific to your situation, please consult the appropriate professionals.