Is the Bottom In? An Honest Answer to the Question Everyone Is Asking About Chilliwack Real Estate in 2026

By Matt Paisley | The Welcome Matt | May 2026

Est. reading time: 5-6 minutes

I get asked some version of this question roughly four times a week right now. On the football field. In the grocery store. In my DMs. From people who read last week's blog and want the one sentence answer I deliberately did not give them.

"Is the bottom in?"

I have been writing this blog for several months now. I have covered federal election housing policy, a $4 billion pipeline running through our backyard, rental markets, blend and extend mortgages, and the real cost of waiting to buy. I once moonwalked through my unfinished basement dressed as Michael Jackson to make a point about rents .(ok maybe not for real but i did in spirit). My wife remains patient with me.

And here I am at the question everyone actually wants answered, which it turns out has nothing to do with pipelines or monetary policy or mortgage mechanics. It is just: is now a good time to buy or not.

I am going to give you the most honest answer I have. Fair warning: it is not the one you are hoping for.

What the Data Says About the Chilliwack Real Estate Bottom in 2026

There are some genuinely encouraging signals in the most recent numbers. The national benchmark home price has posted two consecutive monthly increases, suggesting the price correction that dominated late 2025 and early 2026 may be starting to level out. After fourteen consecutive months of benchmark price declines nationally, two months of modest upward movement is at least worth noting.

Days on market nationally are also falling. CREA's senior economist noted a stronger handoff into May alongside falling days on market and stabilizing prices. In plain English: homes that are priced correctly are moving faster than they were a few months ago. I see this on the ground in Chilliwack too. The day sale I wrote about last week was not a fluke. There are buyers in this market who are ready to move when something is priced right.

So if you are looking for green shoots, they are there. Small ones. But they exist.

What the Data Also Says, Because I Would Not Be Me If I Left This Part Out

Here is where I have to be the person at the party who says the thing everyone was hoping nobody would say.

National home sales were up only 0.7 percent month over month in April while new listings jumped 4.1 percent in the same period. Supply is growing faster than demand. That is not the setup for a rapid price recovery. CREA's own economist said the previously expected rebound will continue to be muted. That is a remarkably candid thing for the national real estate association to put in a press release and I respect them for it.

CoStar's chief economist for Canada is projecting that equilibrium in the housing market is unlikely to return until 2027, pointing to a structural inventory overhang and the fact that long-term mortgage rates have not dropped in response to central bank policy cuts over the past two years. I wrote about this exact dynamic three weeks ago in the waiting to buy post. Rate cuts were supposed to be the cavalry. They showed up. The market barely flinched. That is not the setup most buyers were counting on.

Locally, Chilliwack is still sitting at elevated inventory with a benchmark price roughly 3.4 percent below where it was a year ago. Homes are moving in pockets. A lot of them are not moving at all. Both things are true on the same street on the same Tuesday afternoon.

The Part Nobody Wants to Hear

The bottom is only visible in hindsight. I do not mean that in a fortune cookie kind of way. I mean it literally. Nobody rang a bell in March 2009 and announced that US housing had bottomed. Nobody sent a memo in 2012 when Canadian prices started their long run up. People who called the bottom correctly either got lucky or had access to a crystal ball I have not found yet. I have looked. I have a partially renovated basement and a lot of free time down there. No crystal ball.

What I can tell you is that every single person I have ever spoken to who tried to time the absolute bottom of a market either missed it or bought on the way down thinking they had found it. The strategy of waiting for the bottom is seductive because it sounds disciplined. In practice it is one of the most effective ways to ensure you are still renting in 2028 wondering what happened.

The more useful question is not whether we are at the bottom. It is whether the home you are looking at is priced fairly for the market right now, whether the numbers work for your specific situation at current rates, and whether the next three to five years of your life are served better by owning or renting. Those questions have answers. The bottom question mostly does not.

What I Actually Think, Since You Asked

I think we are somewhere near the floor. I do not think we are in for another leg down of significant magnitude in Chilliwack. The factors that would drive another sharp correction, a dramatic rise in unemployment, a major rate spike, or a sudden flood of distressed selling, are not obviously present right now. The market is soft but it is not broken.

I also do not think we are on the verge of a sharp recovery. Economic uncertainty from both the Iran war and the US trade war is keeping national housing activity balanced at best. Consumer confidence is cautious. The buyers who are in the market are informed and patient and they are not going to be rushed.

What I think we are in is a window. Not a forever window. Not a closing-tomorrow window. A window where a buyer with a clear head, honest numbers, and a medium-term outlook can make a good decision without fighting fifteen other people for the same property. That window has been open for a while and at some point it will not be.

When exactly it closes I genuinely cannot tell you. Anyone who says they can is either guessing or selling something. Possibly both.

The Actual Bottom Line

If you are waiting for a headline that says "Bottom Confirmed, Safe to Buy Now," that headline is not coming. It never does. By the time the consensus agrees the bottom was in, the bottom was six months ago and prices have already moved.

If you are a buyer who has been sitting on the sidelines and your situation is otherwise ready, the honest conversation to have is not about the bottom. It is about whether the specific home you want is priced fairly today and whether your life is better served owning it than not owning it. Run those numbers. Not the 2022 numbers. The ones you actually have right now.

If you are a seller who is waiting for the bottom to pass before listing, I understand the instinct. But a market that is near the floor with stabilizing prices and tightening days on market is actually a reasonable time to list a well-priced home. The sellers who are struggling right now are not struggling because of the market. They are struggling because of their price. Last week's blog covered that in some detail if you missed it.

I am going to go check on my basement now. Progress has been made. The crystal ball remains conspicuously absent.

Matt Paisley | The Welcome Matt Fraser Valley Real Estate | Chilliwack, Abbotsford, Langley, Mission, Hope and Agassiz 📱 [604-991-5028] 🌐 thewelcomematt.ca

Market data referenced in this post reflects Chilliwack and District Real Estate Board statistics for March & April 2026. This post is intended for general informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or real estate advice specific to your situation.